• International oil prices fell after President Donald Trump paused planned US strikes against Iran and signalled progress towards renewed negotiations.

• Despite the decline, crude oil prices remain well above pre-conflict levels, keeping pressure on global fuel markets.

• The latest developments could offer short-term relief for import-dependent economies, although any renewed tensions could quickly push prices higher.

US crude oil fell 5 % to US$80.79 a barrel on Sunday night, while Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped 5 % to US$83.87 a barrel.

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Trump said in a social media post that the framework for an agreement was being developed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway between Iran and Oman through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes.

According to The New York Times, shipping traffic through the strait remains well below pre-war levels, with only 20 vessels passing through over the weekend compared with about 130 ships a day before the conflict began. Meanwhile, OPEC+ also approved a modest production increase of about 188,000 barrels per day, saying the move was intended to support market stability.

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Despite the latest decline, oil prices remain significantly higher than they were before the conflict erupted. The Associated Press reported that US crude is still about 20 % above pre-war levels, while The New York Times said the average US petrol price remains more than 37 % higher than before the fighting began, with diesel prices up by more than 42 %. Elevated energy prices have boosted profits for oil companies but have also increased transport and living costs across many countries.

For Ghana and many other African economies, the latest price drop could provide only temporary relief. Most African countries rely heavily on imported refined petroleum products, leaving them vulnerable to swings in global crude prices and exchange rate movements.

In Ghana, the National Petroleum Authority recently increased benchmark price floors for the first pricing window of August, raising petrol to GH¢14.53 per litre and diesel to GH¢16.97 per litre, following earlier increases in crude oil prices and the depreciation of the cedi.

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Some bulk oil distributors have also moved to reviewing ex-refinery prices daily instead of every two weeks because of heightened market volatility.

Whether the latest fall in oil prices is sustained will largely depend on the outcome of renewed talks between Washington and Tehran. The pause in military action followed diplomatic appeals from Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

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Any renewed escalation could quickly reverse the decline in oil prices, with direct consequences for fuel costs, inflation and transport expenses across Ghana and much of Africa.