Sierra Leone President Julius Maada Bio emerges ECOWAS new leader.

Sierra Leone’s President, Julius Maada Bio, has assumed the rotating chairmanship of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) at a critical juncture for the region. His predecessor, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, oversaw a tumultuous period marked by some of the most significant challenges in the bloc’s nearly 50-year history.

Challenges During Tinubu’s Tenure

During Tinubu’s less than two-year tenure, ECOWAS grappled with persistent terror attacks and escalating security concerns. The bloc’s capacity to respond to these threats was further diminished by the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, all under military rule, who subsequently formed their own Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in 2023.

Tinubu acknowledged these difficulties at a recent ECOWAS summit in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital, expressing concern about the slow progress in activating an expanded ECOWAS Standby Force, envisioned in 2024. This force is intended to comprise military, civilian, and police components.

“The ECOWAS Standby Force must move from concept to operational reality,” Tinubu stated, emphasizing the urgent need for a prepared force to combat terrorism and organized crime in West Africa. “I am a little bit worried about the slow pace of its activation, which is taking longer than desired.”

Despite a recent €110 million ($126 million) injection from the European Union, the ECOWAS coffers are still far short of the estimated €2.26 billion needed to fully activate the Standby Force.

A Fractured Region

Tinubu expressed optimism about the eventual “return to the family” of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, though he admitted to having exhausted “all diplomatic means to engage and dialogue with our brothers.” These nations have, however, firmly ruled out rejoining ECOWAS.
“You now have a completely fractured region,” Beverly Ochieng, a senior associate specializing in the Sahel at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told DW, highlighting the impact of successive coups in West Africa.

Ochieng elaborated, “So you have three countries that have basically walked out of the bloc. You have one that’s still under suspension until it holds its elections, and that is Guinea. And, broadly speaking, you have an ECOWAS that sometimes feels as if it is struggling to be able to just maintain a sense of unity in order for them to be able to face some of those challenges as a united front.”

Working with Opposing Alliances

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) has openly challenged ECOWAS’s established authority in the region. Some critics have suggested that Tinubu’s firm stance against the junta-led Sahel states during his presidency may have been counterproductive.

Ochieng commented on Tinubu’s approach, saying, “The rhetoric initially in response to the military coups may have been misplaced in the sense of ensuring open dialogue and cooperation.”

In a potential move towards rapprochement, or perhaps a pragmatic concession, ECOWAS announced at the Abuja summit an agreement with the military juntas of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger to collaborate in the fight against terrorism across the region.

Ochieng believes this effort stems from “a realization by ECOWAS that they will ultimately have to find a way to work with the Sahel because the issues that affect the Sahel will ultimately have an impact on ECOWAS.” The agreement includes maintaining the principle of freedom of movement for goods and people between member states of both alliances.

Bio’s Uphill Battle

President Julius Maada Bio of Sierra Leone, the new ECOWAS chairman, faces a daunting task as the bloc confronts unprecedented threats to its integrity. He acknowledged this challenge in his opening remarks, stating, “The democratic space is under strain in parts of our region. In some countries, the constitutional order has been disrupted.”

Ben Shemang of DW, reporting from the Abuja summit, noted that Bio has pledged to prioritize democracy, security cooperation, economic integration, and the institutional credibility of ECOWAS during his tenure.
Shemang added, “Many are expecting a tenure that will not only strengthen security within the regional bloc but also to ensure unity.”

Crime and Instability

The challenges facing Bio are numerous. West Africa is experiencing a rise in organized crime, often transnational in nature, against a backdrop of political and economic instability. Insurgents are increasingly mixing with criminal elements.

Incidents like abductions for ransom, a surge in recreational drug abuse, and an increase in illegal mining activities underscore the growing desperation among the region’s 425 million people.

Ochieng highlighted the bureaucratic hurdles in addressing these issues: “ECOWAS and some of its departments will talk about levels of crime, they’ll talk about the issues affecting criminality. But when it comes to implementing measures to be able to counter to some of those vices, it’s quite slow and bureaucratic.”

Threats of Further Fragmentation

The formation of the AES has emboldened leaders and opposition groups across the region, with many viewing the actions of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger as a long-overdue response to the enduring effects of colonialism.
A recent Afrobarometer survey in Togo revealed that 64% of Togolese respondents found the establishment of the AES “somewhat” or “very” justified, and 54% believed their country would benefit from leaving ECOWAS to join the AES. Guinea, under military rule for nearly four years and still suspended from ECOWAS, has not joined the AES but could further distance itself from the bloc.

The Future of Regional Blocs
These trends suggest a potential decline in the influence of former colonial powers and a growing perception that bodies like ECOWAS have little impact on the daily lives of millions affected by instability and unrest.

“Understandably, there is a feeling that [ECOWAS] is not fit for purpose in terms of being able to address current political pressures, and in doing so, being able to address the issues that then lead to economic and civil unrest,” Ochieng explained. She added that ideas like “joining the AES feel like a more reactionary solution. And even the AES itself is a very reactionary institution.”

Ochieng cautioned about the AES’s stability, stating, “Perhaps the AES could be moving in a direction that people feel is admirable, that is very purposeful, that is very driven, but it’s also on a very fragile foundation. These are military leaderships. They have widespread unrest and instability that they are facing as they are trying to establish this institution.”

As a growing number of people in the region appear to favor strongman tactics over democratic and consensus-led policies, President Bio begins his tenure acutely aware of the immense challenges ahead. During his inaugural speech, he acknowledged that “ECOWAS must reform itself, and become more transparent, efficient and responsive to its people’s needs.”

What are your thoughts on the future of regional cooperation in West Africa given these evolving dynamics?