Ghana’s inflation rate could ease in July 2026, potentially dipping below the 5.3 percent recorded in June, according to a new outlook by Databank Research.

The firm projects inflation to moderate to between 4.6 percent and 5.0 percent, driven largely by seasonal improvements in food supply conditions. Analysts say the anticipated slowdown will precede the August harvest season, which is expected to boost food availability and help contain price pressures across major markets.

Databank also highlights easing petroleum prices as a key factor that could support lower inflation in the coming month. Combined with favourable base effects from July 2025 — a period that saw sharper increases in consumer prices — this year’s inflation readings may appear relatively subdued.

The report stresses that the expected moderation is month‑specific, rather than part of a broader quarterly trend, underscoring how sensitive inflation remains to developments in food supply and energy markets.

The outlook follows a rise in Ghana’s inflation rate to 5.3 percent in June, up from 3.7 percent in May — the third consecutive monthly increase this year. The June uptick was driven by higher fuel and utility costs as well as shortages of selected food staples.

Databank analysts argue that services inflation played an even bigger role, fuelled by persistent increases in petroleum prices and utility tariffs. Non‑food inflation accelerated from 4.1 percent to 6.3 percent year‑on‑year during the period. Rising prices of staple foods such as tomatoes and fresh fish also contributed to the June surge.

If Databank’s projections hold, July could deliver the first easing in inflation since the start of the recent upward trend, offering some relief to households and businesses ahead of the main harvest season.

— CitiNewsRoom