Ghana’s unbeaten start to the 2026 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations (WAFCON) ended in Casablanca on Sunday, but the Black Queens’ route to the quarter-finals remains firmly in their own hands.

Marie Ngah Manga’s 19th-minute penalty settled a tense encounter at the Moulay Rachid Stadium, sending Cameroon to the top of Group D and leaving Kim Lars Björkegren’s side with one final opportunity to secure qualification when they face Mali on Thursday, August 6.

The defeat was not without controversy. Ghana believed they had equalised in the second half through Evelyn Badu, only for the goal to be ruled out following a VAR review for offside in the build-up involving Doris Boaduwaa.

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Cameroon goalkeeper Michaely Bihina then produced a composed performance to preserve her side’s narrow advantage, confirming the Indomitable Lionesses’ place in the quarter-finals.

Cameroon’s victory, coupled with Mali’s 3-2 win over Cape Verde in the other Group D fixture, has reshaped the standings heading into the final round of matches.

Cape Verde’s second consecutive defeat has already ended the tournament debutants’ hopes of progressing, while the battle for second place will be decided when Ghana take on Mali.

Cameroon have already secured top spot and a place in the quarter-finals regardless of the outcome of the final group matches.

Ghana and Mali are level on three points, but the Black Queens hold a slight advantage with a superior goal difference of +1, compared to Mali’s 0.

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If Ghana Beat Mali

A victory guarantees Ghana a place in the quarter-finals.

Any win will take the Black Queens to six points, ensuring they finish second in Group D behind Cameroon and book their place in the knockout stage.

If Ghana Draw With Mali

A draw would also be enough for Ghana to qualify.

Both teams would finish on four points, forcing CAF’s tie-break rules into effect.

The first tie-break criteria are:

• Head-to-head points

• Head-to-head goal difference

• Head-to-head goals scored

Because the draw would be the head-to-head meeting between Ghana and Mali, all three criteria would remain level.

CAF would then move to overall goal difference across all group matches.

Since Ghana currently have a goal difference of +1, compared to Mali’s 0, and both teams would record the same goal difference from a drawn match, Ghana would retain their advantage and progress as Group D runners-up.

A defeat would eliminate the Black Queens.

Mali would move ahead of Ghana in the standings and secure second place, ending Ghana’s WAFCON campaign at the group stage.

In simple terms: Ghana only need to avoid defeat against Mali to qualify for the quarter-finals.

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CAF regulations use the following criteria to separate teams level on points:

• Head-to-head points

• Head-to-head goal difference

• Head-to-head goals scored

• Overall goal difference

• Overall goals scored

• Fair play record

• Drawing of lots

Should Ghana and Mali draw, the first three criteria would remain equal, making overall goal difference the deciding factor—an advantage Ghana currently hold.

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Ghana face Mali at 20:00 GMT on Thursday, August 6, at the Moulay Rachid Stadium in Casablanca.

At the same time, Cameroon will play Cape Verde at the Larbi Zaouli Stadium, ensuring both decisive Group D fixtures are played simultaneously.

Fans in Ghana can watch the match live on GTV, Max TV, while SuperSport will broadcast the game across DStv and GOtv in Sub-Saharan Africa.

CAF’s official YouTube channel, CAF TV, will also stream the match live for viewers outside exclusive broadcast territories.

If Ghana finish second in Group D, they will face the winners of Group C in the quarter-finals on Sunday, August 9, at the Al Medina Stadium in Rabat.

That opponent is currently expected to be Malawi, who have impressed on their WAFCON debut by winning their opening two matches against Nigeria and Egypt.

Malawi’s final Group C match against Zambia on Wednesday, August 5, will determine whether they remain group winners.

If Ghana qualify by avoiding defeat against Mali, the Black Queens would also avoid a potential quarter-final meeting with 10-time champions Nigeria.

The equation for Ghana is straightforward.

The Black Queens do not need favours from the other Group D fixture.

Avoid defeat against Mali, and they will secure a place in the WAFCON 2026 quarter-finals.